000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131508
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W N OF 3N TO PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
COLOMBIA IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS E OF THE WAVE FROM 
3N-7N E OF 82W.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N84W 6N100W 7N110W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
92W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60N S 
AND 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 136W-140W.
  
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N123W TO 19N130W. AN 80-100
KT JETSTREAM IS E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N117W NE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA INTO SW ARIZONA. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
120 NM SE OF THE JET. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY
STABLE AIR IS FROM 15N-25N W OF 120W. SE OF THE TROUGH A LARGE  
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO NEAR 20N101W. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW 
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 7N118W. IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA AT 10N140W 
AND EXTENDS E TO 9N125W.

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N116W. JUST BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. A 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 
11N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N 
BETWEEN 89W AND 95W. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
29N140W TO 17N110W.

S TO SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
RESULTING IN LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF CONDITIONS ALONG 
THOSE COASTS.
 
$$
DGS