000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121514
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ALONG 8N81W 5N90W 11N120W 7N130W 8N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 81W TO 85W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
FROM 87W TO 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 136W AND 138W.
  
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N125W AND 
EXTENDS TO 25N127W TO 19N138W. A NLY 75-90 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS 
FROM 32N130W TO 27N128W WHERE THE WINDS DECREASE...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN SLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 28N121W TO 21N119W. ANOTHER 
75-85 KT JET EXTENDS FROM 25N118W ACROSS NW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
COVERS THE ARE FROM 15N-25N W OF 125W AND WITHIN 200 NM NW OF 
THE JET ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 90 
NM SE OF THE JET. TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WSW ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
PACIFIC TO NEAR 15N120W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS ENTERS THE AREA AT 10N140W AND EXTENDS TO 10N127W.

A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 15N120W. THE LOW NO LONGER 
HAS ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NO LONGER A THREAT TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE LOW AND 
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUN.

SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N137W AND 
CONTINUES SEWD TO 20N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT AT THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR NE TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT 
TO BE CONFINED FROM 10N-18N W OF 130W.

LARGE S TO SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THROUGHOUT THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE HIGHEST OF 
THESE SEAS IN THE FAR SE SECTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE 
RESULTING WAVES TO IMPACT THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA SAT AND 
SUN RESULTING IN LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF CONDITIONS.
 
$$
DGS