000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 12N119W...1008 MB...HAS HAD PERSISTENT 
STRONG CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TO THE W OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN 
150 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 180 
NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 5N ALONG 89W TO EL SALVADOR MOVING W 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF 
THE WAVE N OF 11N.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N85W 11N95W 7N105W 10N115W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 92W-105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 108W-112W.
  
...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 21N140W...WITH
45-50 KT SW WINDS SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N122W TO NW MEXICO 
NEAR THE SE ARIZONA BORDER. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY STABLE AIR IS FROM 20N-25N W OF 120W AND WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE WIND MAX. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE W CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
20N107W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYLONE SW TO 13N121W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE TAIL END OF A 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTEND ACROSS 
HONDURAS TO 12N90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER COLOMBIA IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N140W 23N117W TO 12N100W. EXCEPT 
FOR THE WINDS AROUND THE LOW SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT 
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER..LONG PERIOD S TO SW SWELL EMANATING 
FROM A STRONG CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL AFFECT THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA SAT AND SUN...PRODUCING LARGE AND 
DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF ALONG THE COASTS.
 
$$
DGS