000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 12N118W HAS IMPROVED IN 
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW 
THE DENSE OVERCAST EXPANDING WITH THE ESTIMATED CLOUD SYSTEM 
CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE OVERCAST. MEANWHILE...THE CURVED BAND TO 
THE N AND W OF THE CENTER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY BROKEN AND 
LESS DEFINED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
240 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO MORE 
DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ BASED ON ITS OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE. 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES REVEAL SW 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE SE 
QUADRANT AND ENHANCED 20 KT NE TRADES OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 
86W N OF 03N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ 
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO 
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN. REFER TO THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER 
DISCUSSION...MIATWDAT ...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N84W TO 07N100W TO 06N110W TO 10N116W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 
80W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 
105W.
    
...DISCUSSION...

OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION INCLUDE...A WEAKENING AREA 
SEVERAL HUNDRED NM SOUTH OF MEXICO FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 
100W-105W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT BETWEEN AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ANOTHER AREA 
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND MEXICO COASTS BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...ENHANCED BY 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT 
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS WITH 
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON EITHER SIDE OF 
AN UPPER TROUGH. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT NEAR 
THE BAJA COAST WHERE BROAD TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND TERRAIN 
VARIATIONS HAVE GENERATED NW 20 KT WINDS...AND SW TO W WINDS 
NEAR 20 KT IN THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATE EVENING 
AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN HOLDS.

LONG PERIOD S TO SW SWELL EMANATING FROM A STRONG CYCLONE IN THE 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AFFECTING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
MEXICO WILL PEAK IN SIZE ON SAT AND SUN...PRODUCING LARGE AND 
DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF ALONG THE COASTS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
COLOMBIA. LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 2 TO 2.5 METERS WILL REACH THE 
COASTLINES FROM SRN MEXICO TO PANAMA AT 15-16 SECONDS. SELECT 
DEEP WATER BREAKS AND BEACHES ACROSS THIS AREA MAY SEE BREAKING 
WAVES APPROACHING 20 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.
 
$$
CANGIALOSI