000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 11N117W HAS BECOME A LITTLE 
BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW 
IMPROVED CURVED BANDING TO THE N AND W OF THE ESTIMATED 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND IS MORE 
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...WITHIN 210 NM N AND 45 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO MORE DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ 
BASED ON ITS OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES REVEAL SW 20 KT WINDS OR SO OVER THE SE QUADRANT AND 
ENHANCED NE TRADES OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED 
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC ALONG 84W N OF 03N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
THE INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 04N E OF 87W. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE 
WRN CARIBBEAN. REFER TO THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
...MIATWDAT...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N84W TO 06N110W TO 10N116W TO 07N135W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 
09N E OF 87W AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W.
    
...DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LOCATED SEVERAL 
HUNDRED NM SOUTH OF MEXICO FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 95W-106W. THIS 
CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN 
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND TROUGHING EXTENDING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT IS 
SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS REVEALED BY LOW-LEVEL CLOUD 
MOTIONS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT 
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS WITH 
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON EITHER SIDE OF 
AN UPPER TROUGH. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT NEAR 
THE BAJA COAST WHERE BROAD TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND TERRAIN 
VARIATIONS HAVE GENERATED NW 20 KT WINDS...AND SW TO W WINDS 
NEAR 20 KT IN THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATE EVENING 
AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN HOLDS.

LONG PERIOD S TO SW SWELL EMANATING FROM A STRONG CYCLONE IN THE 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AFFECTING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
MEXICO WILL PEAK IN SIZE ON SAT AND SUN...PRODUCING LARGE AND 
DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF ALONG THE COASTS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
COLOMBIA. LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 2 TO 2.5 METERS WILL REACH THE 
COASTLINES FROM SRN MEXICO TO PANAMA AT 15-16 SECONDS. SELECT 
DEEP WATER BREAKS AND BEACHES ACROSS THIS AREA MAY SEE BREAKING 
WAVES APPROACHING 20 FEET DURING THE WEEKEND.
 
$$
CANGIALOSI