000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS WAS ALONG 09.5N84W TO 09N88W TO 08N98W TO 13N112W TO 
07.5N126W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 109W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 126W. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF COLOMBIA W OF 73W AND EXTENDED 
OFFSHORE INTO THE EPAC TO 80W AND THEN BECAME MORE ISOLATED TO 
85W.    

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES TROUGH AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
EXTENDS FROM 07.5N125W TO 13N111W...DRIFTING NW...WITH AT LEAST 
3 SEPARATE LOW PRES CENTERS SUGGESTED BY STLT IMAGERY AND RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES...NEAR 09N124W...11N120W AND 11.5N118W. 
THIS SECOND LOW WAS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL BETTER 
ORGANIZATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER RECENT STLT 
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE THIRD LOW NEAR 11.5N118W MAY BE 
GRADUALLY BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS 
BETTER MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND MORE CONVECTION. THIS END 
OF THE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS BETWEEN A 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND ANOTHER 
RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICS SE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. REGARDING 
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...WE ARE FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE GFS AND 
ECMWF IN TRACKING THE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED LOWS SLOWLY WNW WITH 
VERY SLOW WEAKENING IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BASES 
ON PRESENT SIGNALS...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANOTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LOCATED SEVERAL 
HUNDRED NM SOUTH OF MEXICO EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 05N TO 
10N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO 
AND TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS. TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ALSO NOTED IS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH 
OF COLOMBIA EXTENDING W OFF THE COAST INTO THE EPAC TO 
83W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE 
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY...AND BEING VENTED NICELY UNDERNEATH AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THIS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AND NW 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS WITH 
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG AND TO THE W 
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION... 
EXCEPT NEAR THE BAJA COAST WHERE BROAD TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND 
TERRAIN VARIATIONS HAVE GENERATED NW 20 KT WINDS...AND SW TO W 
WINDS NEAR 20 KT IN THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE 
PRESSURE PATTERN HOLDS.

LONG PERIOD SWELL EMANATING FROM A STRONG CYCLONE IN THE 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT AT 20-22 
SECONDS AND WILL REACH THE W COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND PEAK IN SIZE ON SAT 
AND SUN...PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF ALONG THE 
COASTS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO COLOMBIA. LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 2 
TO 2.5 METERS WILL REACH THE COASTLINES FROM SRN MEXICO TO 
PANAMA AT 15-16 SECONDS. SELECT DEEP WATER BREAKS AND BEACHES 
ACROSS THIS AREA MAY SEE BREAKING WAVES APPROACHING 20 FEET 
DURING THE WEEKEND.
 
$$
STRIPLING