000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N83W TO 08N96W TO 10N115W TO 07N130W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 
11N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.
    
...DISCUSSION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 09N122W REMAINS 
DISORGANIZED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY ELONGATED 
NE-SW CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION LOOSELY ORGANIZED IN BANDS TO 
THE S AND W OF THE MEAN CENTER (CONVECTION OUTLINED IN THE ITCZ 
SECTION). AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION AND REVEALED NE 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE 
CENTER AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE SLY WINDS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. REGARDING THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...FOLLOWING THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TRACKING THE LOW 
SLOWLY NW WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AS THERE IS A LOW 
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ONLY OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LOCATED SEVERAL 
HUNDRED NM SOUTH OF MEXICO FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 106W. 
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FUELED BY A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 94W 
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR 
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG AND TO THE W OF AN UPPER 
TROUGH AXIS. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT NEAR THE 
BAJA COAST WHERE BROAD TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND TERRAIN 
VARIATIONS HAVE GENERATED NW 20 KT WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE PRESSURE 
PATTERN HOLDS.

LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 16-19 SECONDS EMANATING FROM A STRONG 
CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 
EQUATOR BY WED AND REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THU 
...CARRYING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF 
ALONG THE COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO COLOMBIA. 
 
$$
CANGIALOSI