000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 07N83W TO 06N99W TO 10N113W TO 06N125W 
TO 08N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E 
OF 96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 96W-103W.
    
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AT 
34N119W HAS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SW TO SECOND CYCLONE AT 
04N134W.  VERY DY AIR MASS ALONG AND W OF TROUGH AXIS DUE TO  
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT.  SUBTROPICAL JET 
CORE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF SECOND VORTEX ADVECTS CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS FROM WEAK LOW PRES CENTERS NEAR 09N123W AND 11N118W 
ACROSS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN MEXICO AND SW CONUS.  BOTH 
LOW PRES CENTERS ENTERING ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 
STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND ARE NOT 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANY MEANINGFUL TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.

BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SW OF MEXICO AT 
21N104W ASSISTS IN ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO WHILE ALSO BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM 
CARIBBEAN INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ LATITUDES ENHANCING CONVECTION 
MAINLY E OF 96W.  ITS DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ALLOW CONVECTION 
COMBINES WITH CENTRAL AMERICA TOPOGRAPHY AND DAYTIME HEATING TO 
DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 16-18 SECONDS EMANATING FROM STRONG CYCLONE 
IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHOULD CROSS EQUATOR BY WED AND REACH 
ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI.  SECOND SURGE OF LONGER 
PERIOD SWELL...18-19 SECONDS SHOULD ARRIVE SAT...CARRYING 
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF ALONG COAST FROM 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO COLOMBIA. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES