000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 08N90W TO 09N100W TO 
12N114W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 
12N BETWEEN 116W AND 118W.
    
...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF MEXICO NEAR 
17N110W. NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS PRODUCING DEEP LAYERED DRY SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SRN 
MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS ON THE WEST SIDE W OF 108W. A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE IS S OF 
EL SALVADOR PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. 
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO 
ENHANCE A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. THIS 
REPRESENTS A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION E OF 110W AS 
DEPICTED IN THE GFS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MODEL.  

W OF 110W...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W WITH AXIS 
ALONG 125W. FURTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW 
FROM 17N110W TO 06N130W WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE. ON THE SURFACE...1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
36N146W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 24N114W. A TIGHT 
SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 20 KT NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST 
OF THE BAJA. FURTHER SOUTH...A 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE ITCZ NEAR 
11N117W WITH CONVECTION. ANOTHER 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE ITCZ NEAR 
09N123W WITH A TROUGH ALIGNED FROM 13N121W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 
05N123W. THESE TWO LOWS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEEPENING 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
  
$$
FORMOSA