000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 09N90W TO 11N110W TO 
05N130W TO 06N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 91W AND 
95W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 
114W.   

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF MEXICO NEAR 
18N110W. NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PRODUCING DEEP LAYERED DRY SUBSIDENCE 
ACROSS SRN MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONSIDERABLE UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. A 
DEFORMATION ZONE IS S OF EL SALVADOR PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE 
OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE A WIDE AREA OF 
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. THIS REPRESENTS A VERY WET 
PATTERN FOR THE REGION E OF 93W AS DEPICTED IN THE GFS 
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MODEL.  

E OF 110W...
A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N120W SW TO 20N135W. ON THE 
SURFACE... 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 36N1147W WITH A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 16N110W. NW WINDS ARE REACHING NEAR 20 KT 
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA. FURTHER SOUTH... A TROUGH IS 
ALIGNED SW TO NE THROUGH THE ITCZ FROM 13N120W TO 06N123W. AN 
EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 
09N122W. THIS LOW HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEEPENING OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 
  
$$
FORMOSA