000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N82W TO 09N91W TO 08N102W TO 10N111W TO 
06N125W TO 10N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S 
OF AXIS FROM 89W-96W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 240 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS 104W-123W ASSOCIATED WITH 
LOW PRES AT 10N121W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 34N124W 
TO 32N125W TO 24N130W TO 19N140W.  AIR MASS VERY DRY ALONG AND W 
OF AXIS BUT 100 KT JETSTREAM ON SE SIDE ADVECTS ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE NE INTO N HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...NW MEXICO 
AND SW CONUS.

BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 17N110W HAS WEAK 
RIDGE EXTEND SW OVER ITCZ W OF 118W BRINGING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW 
TO SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB AT 10N121W ENHANCING ITS 
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.  CONTINUOUS FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE LAYER 
FEED LOW PRES AND NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  SEVERAL MODELS OF BOTH REGIONAL AND GLOBAL 
GUIDANCE FAVOR STRENGTHENING OF SYSTEM WITHIN NEXT 48 HR.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB NW OF AREA 
MOVES E FORCING FRESH NW FLOW AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. 
N-S LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG CENTRAL MEXICO MAINTAINS TIGHT 
GRADIENT WITH RIDGE THROUGH NEXT 48 HR SO EXPECT THESE WINDS TO 
EXTEND THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 
 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER SW CARIBBEAN ALLOWING WIDESPREAD 
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO 
EASTERN FRINGES OF BASIN.  NO ORGANIZATION IS NOTED NOR EXPECTED 
WITH SYSTEM AS UPPER ENVIRONMENT REMAINS ADVERSE.  

$$
WALLY BARNES