000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081003 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 09N90W TO 08N98W TO 11N110W TO 06N128W TO 10N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 105W... A SHARPENING POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SW TO A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N127W AND CONTINUES TO A BASE NEAR 21N130W. STRONG SW FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WAS ADVECTING VAST AMOUNTS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...NRN MEXICO AND THE SW CONUS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 13N109W. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N123W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. NW WINDS OF NEAR 20 KT ARE NOTED ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA. FURTHER E...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS INLAND OVER S CALIFORNIA TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TOGETHER WITH DRAINAGE FLOW...20 KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 48 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N121W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ BUT APPEARS TO BE SITUATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC E TO SE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER IN AN AREA FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 13N136W TO 11N140W. 20 KT WINDS AND 8FT SWELL ARE W OF THIS TROUGH TO BEYOND 140W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. E OF 110W... NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE IS PRODUCING DEEP LAYERED DRY SINKING AIR ACROSS SRN MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEFORMATION ZONE S OF EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE A WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN THE CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY LIFT THE ITCZ NWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER COSTA RICA AND NE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT NWD THROUGH WED. THIS REPRESENTS A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION E OF 93W AS DEPICTED IN THE GFS QPF FORECASTS. $$ COBB