000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 09N85W TO 08N95W TO 
11N110W TO 07N120W TO 05N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 
14N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 136W AND 139W.    

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF MEXICO NEAR 
14N107W. NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PRODUCING DEEP LAYERED DRY SINKING AIR 
ACROSS SRN MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEFORMATION ZONE S 
OF EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM COSTA RICA TO 
HONDURAS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THIS AREA 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS 
CONTINUING TO ENHANCE A WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR 
THE ITCZ. GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY LIFT THE ITCZ NWD INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPS A BROAD 
AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER COSTA RICA AND NE INTO 
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT NWD THROUGH WED. THIS 
REPRESENTS A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION E OF 93W AS 
DEPICTED IN THE GFS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MODEL.  

E OF 110W...
A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N120W SW TO 20N135W. ON THE 
SURFACE... 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N125W WITH A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N110W. NW WINDS ARE REACHING NEAR 20 KT 
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA. FURTHER E...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS 
INLAND OVER S CALIFORNIA TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TOGETHER WITH 
DRAINAGE FLOW...20 KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. FURTHER SOUTH... A 
TROUGH IS ALIGNED SW TO NE THROUGH THE ITCZ FROM 14N116W TO 
04N120W. AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE TROUGH AXIS 
NEAR 09N118W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER 
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 117W 
AND 122W. THIS LOW HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEEPENING OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 
13N136W TO 11N140W. 20 KT WINDS AND 8FT SWELL ARE W OF THIS 
TROUGH TO BEYOND 140W. 

$$
FORMOSA