000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 07N90W TO 08N100W TO 
11N114W TO 06N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W...AND 
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF MEXICO NEAR 
15N107W. NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PRODUCING DEEP LAYERED DRY SINKING AIR 
ACROSS SRN MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEFORMATION ZONE S 
OF EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM COSTA RICA TO 
HONDURAS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THIS AREA 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS 
CONTINUING TO ENHANCE A WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR 
THE ITCZ. GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY LIFT THE ITCZ NWD INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPS A BROAD 
AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER COSTA RICA AND NE INTO 
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT NWD THROUGH WED. THIS 
REPRESENTS A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION E OF 93W AS 
DEPICTED IN THE GFS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MODEL.  

E OF 110W...
A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N120W SW TO 20N135W. ON THE 
SURFACE... 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N128W WITH A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 18N110W. NW WINDS ARE REACHING NEAR 20 KT 
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA. FURTHER E...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS 
INLAND OVER S CALIFORNIA TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TOGETHER WITH 
DRAINAGE FLOW...20 KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. FURTHER SOUTH... A 
TROUGH IS ALIGNED SW TO NE THROUGH THE ITCZ FROM 13N115W TO 
06N120W PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 111W AND 121W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ 
FROM 13N137W TO 09N140W. 20 KT WINDS AND 8FT SWELL ARE W OF THIS 
TROUGH TO BEYOND 140W. 

$$
FORMOSA