000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071008 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...BROAD LOW... BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CONTINUES TO BE SUGGESTED BY STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL EPAC ALONG 10N E TO COSTA RICA AND THEN NE OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN. ITCZ CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS WEAKENED...BUT STILL REMAINS FAVORABLE. GOOD CONVERGENCE PERSISTS TO THE S OF THE ITCZ TROUGH...IN SW TO W FLOW. SURFACE LOWS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED OVER THE EPAC AND SW CARIB ARE NOT OBVIOUS ATTM AND HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 06Z SURFACE MAP. ...ITCZ... AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL AMERICA...EXITING W COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 09N83W TO 10N97W TO 08.5N105W TO 07N115W TO 05.5N124W TO 08N137W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 95W...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 120W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OFF OF SRN MEXICO NEAR 15N106W. NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PRODUCING DEEP LAYERED DRY SINKING AIR ACROSS SRN MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE YUCATAN. A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE IS S OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR... AND IS ENHANCING MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS AND ACROSS THE EPAC ITCZ. DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE EPAC ITCZ WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SW OR W CARIBBEAN. THIS WOULD REPRESENT A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION E OF 90W IF THIS EVOLVES AS FORECAST. W OF 110W... A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 34N120W SW TO 18N140W. ON THE SURFACE... 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTER NEAR 31N152W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N112W. NW WINDS ARE REACHING NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW W WINDS TO REACH 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FURTHER SOUTH... A WEAK TROUGH IS ALIGNED SW TO NE THROUGH THE ITCZ FROM 08N140W TO 14N132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH S OF 17N TO THE ITCZ AND W BEYOND 140W...WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED S SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. LONG PERIOD SRN HEMI SW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE MOST RECENT PULSE FADING PEAKING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF 120W. THIS WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A NEW PULSE ARRIVES MON NIGHT INTO TUE...AND PEAKING AT UNDER 2 METERS THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SRN HEMISPHERE GALE CENTER AND A HIGH TO ITS W AND SW...EFFECTING A RELATIVELY LONG AND SUSTAINED FETCH SUN THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL GENERATE VERY LONG PERIOD SW SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA N OF 10S. SWELL IN EXCESS OF 20 SEC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED AND THU...WITH THIS EVENT EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 2-3 METERS AT 15-16 SECONDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL GENERATE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG ALL PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXPOSED TO THE SW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. $$ STRIPLING