000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070357 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUN 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...BROAD LOW... HIGH RESOLUTION QSCAT PASS SHOWED BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC ALONG 10N BETWEEN 90W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ITCZ HERE REMAINS ACTIVE UNDER EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. A BROAD 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 09N85W AND IS STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROADER CIRCULATION NOW EVOLVING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ... AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N90W TO 07N100W TO 08N110W TO 05N120W TO 09N138W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W... FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W...AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF MEXICO NEAR 16N105W. NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PRODUCING DEEP LAYERED DRY SINKING AIR ACROSS SRN MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE IS S OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR PRODUCING CONVECTION CONVECTION FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE A WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY LIFT THE ITCZ NWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND DEVELOPS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA NE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND SLOWLY DRIFT THIS FEATURE NWD THROUGH WED. THIS WOULD REPRESENT A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION E OF 90W IF THIS EVOLVES AS FORECAST. W OF 110W... A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 34N120W SW TO 18N140W. ON THE SURFACE... 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTER NEAR 31N152W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N112W. NW WINDS ARE REACHING NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW W WINDS TO REACH 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FURTHER SOUTH... A WEAK TROUGH IS ALIGNED SW TO NE THROUGH THE ITCZ FROM 08N140W TO 14N132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH S OF 17N TO THE ITCZ AND W BEYOND 140W...WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED S SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. MODEST LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NEWD THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH A NEW PULSE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THAT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINES THIS MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SRN HEMISPHERE GALE CENTER AND A HIGH TO ITS W AND SW...EFFECTING A RELATIVELY LONG AND SUSTAINED FETCH SUN THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL GENERATE LONG PERIOD...18 SEC SW SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE PACIFIC W OF 100W AND N OF 10S. EVENTUALLY LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE EXPOSED PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATE NEXT WEEK. $$ FORMOSA