000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUN 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...BROAD LOW... HIGH RESOLUTION QSCAT PASS SHOWED BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC ALONG 10N BETWEEN 90W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ITCZ HERE REMAINS ACTIVE UNDER EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. A BROAD 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 09N85W AND IS STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROADER CIRCULATION NOW EVOLVING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ... AXIS EXTENDED FROM 09N78W A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N85W TO 09N100W TO 06N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF MEXICO NEAR 16N105W. NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND SW OF A SHARP MID TO UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING CONVERGENT FLOW AND DEEP LAYERED DRY SINKING AIR ACROSS SRN MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ENCOUNTERING SE FLOW OFF COLOMBIA RESULTING IN A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE UPPER PATTERN S OF GUATEMALA. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE A WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY LIFT THE ITCZ NWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND DEVELOPS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA NE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND SLOWLY DRIFT THIS FEATURE NWD THROUGH WED. THIS WOULD REPRESENT A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION E OF 90W IF THIS EVOLVES AS FORECAST...POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE. FURTHER NORTH...HIGH RESOLUTION QSCAT PASS INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHUT DOWN IN THE NEXT 06 HOURS AS SELY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. W OF 110W... A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 35N120W SW TO 19N140W. ON THE SURFACE... 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTER NEAR 30N150W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 22N115W. NW WINDS ARE LIKELY REACHING NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE TERRAIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW W WINDS TO REACH 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FURTHER SOUTH... A WEAK TROUGH IS ALIGNED SW TO NE THROUGH THE ITCZ FROM 06N138W TO 14N133W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH S OF 17N TO THE ITCZ AND W BEYOND 140W...WHERE SEAS WERE UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED S SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. MODEST LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NEWD THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH A NEW PULSE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THAT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINES SUN MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SRN HEMISPHERE GALE CENTER AND A HIGH TO ITS W AND SW...EFFECTING A RELATIVELY LONG AND SUSTAINED FETCH SUN THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL GENERATE LONG PERIOD...18 SEC SW SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE PACIFIC W OF 100W AND N OF 10S. EVENTUALLY LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE EXPOSED PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATE NEXT WEEK. $$ FORMOSA