000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061553 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...BROAD LOW... 1214 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QSCAT PASS SHOWED BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC ALONG 09-10N BETWEEN 90W AND CENTRAL AMERICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MONSOON CIRCULATION. THE ITCZ HERE REMAINS VERY ACTIVE UNDER EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. A BROAD 1010 MB SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED NEAR 08N85.5W AND WAS DRIFTING NWD. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROADER CIRCULATION NOW EVOLVING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOTE: EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY QUIET WITH NO NAMED STORMS THUS FAR. THIS REPRESENTS THE MOST INACTIVE SEASON TO DATE SINCE 1998 WHEN TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORMED ON JUNE 11. ...ITCZ... AXIS EXTENDED FROM 07N78W A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 08N85.5W TO 07N90W TO 10N105W TO 05N125W TO 08N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF TROUGH FROM 10N TO 13N. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N106W. NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND SW OF A SHARP MID TO UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE E AND SE U.S. IS PRODUCING CONVERGENT FLOW AND DEEP LAYERED DRY SINKING AIR ACROSS SRN MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ENCOUNTERING SE FLOW OFF COLOMBIA RESULTING IN A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE UPPER PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 90W...AS WELL AS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE EPAC AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE A WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY LIFT THE ITCZ NWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND DEVELOP A BROAD AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA NE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND SLOWLY DRIFT THIS FEATURE NWD THROUGH WED. THIS WOULD REPRESENT A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE REGION IF THIS EVOLVES AS FORECAST...POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE. FURTHER NORTH...1214 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QSCAT PASS INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHUT DOWN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS SELY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. W OF 110W... A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 25N130W TO 19N140W TO S OF HAWAII. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N149W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 23N112W. NW WINDS ARE LIKELY REACHING NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TRENDING DOWN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW W WINDS TO REACH 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAK TROUGH WAS INDICATED ALIGNED SW TO NE THROUGH THE ITCZ FROM 08N137W TO 14N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THIS TROUGH WAS PRODUCING A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH S OF 17N TO THE ITCZ AND W BEYOND 140W...WHERE SEAS WERE UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED S SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. MODEST LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NEWD THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH A NEW PULSE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THAT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINES SUN MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SRN HEMISPHERE GALE CENTER AND A HIGH TO ITS W AND SW...EFFECTING A RELATIVELY LONG AND SUSTAINED FETCH SUN THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL GENERATE LONG PERIOD...18 SEC SW SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE PACIFIC W OF 100W AND N OF 10S. EVENTUALLY LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE EXPOSED PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATE NEXT WEEK. $$ COBB