000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W N OF 04N TO EL SALVADOR MOVING W 
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING W OF THE REGION OF BROAD LOW TO MID 
CYCLONIC TURNING AND AN ACTIVE ITCZ. THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNATURE 
OF THE WAVE AND THE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 100W. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N79W TO 08N105W TO 12N115W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 125W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N102W. NORTHERLY 
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
IS BRINGING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MEXICO AND NORTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ENCOUNTERING SE FLOW OFF 
COLOMBIA...PRESENTING A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE UPPER 
PATTERN. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE A 
WIDE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. WEAK 
MAINLY MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT NEAR 06N85W ALONG 
THE ITCZ...AND JUST EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL 
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FURTHER NORTH...VISIBLE 
SATELLITE HINTS OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SHOWED THIS TO BE 20 KT...BUT 
IT LIKELY IS DIMINISHING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER GULF OF 
MEXICO. 

W OF 110W...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH 19N140W. 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1026 MB HIGH PRES CELL NEAR 32N145W 
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 24N112W. WINDS MAY REACH 
20 KT ALONG THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND 
THE TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TRENDING DOWN AS THE RIDGE 
WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH STRONG MID 
LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW W WINDS TO REACH 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FURTHER 
SOUTH...WEAK TROUGH ARE NOTED NEAR 129W AND 115W. LITTLE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THESE TROUGHS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
IS MEAGER. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THESE TROUGHS IS WEAKENING AS 
WELL. THE FEATURE NEAR 115W WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE 
NIGHT.

MODEST LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES 
TO PROPAGATE NEWD BUT WILL DIMINISH ON SAT.   

$$
CHRISTENSEN