000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W N OF 04N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING W OF THE REGION OF 
BROAD LOW TO MID CYCLONIC TURNING AND AN ACTIVE ITCZ. THERE IS 
NO CLEAR SIGNATURE OF THE WAVE AND THE POSITION IS BASED ON 
CONTINUITY. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATES A BROAD AREA 
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 06N TO 11N. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 7N87W 9N97W 8N107W 12N118W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 6N TO OVER PANAMA 
E OF 80W TO OVER COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. 

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...
A MID TO UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 8N85W ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION TO THE W WHICH IS JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. 
ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THIS CIRCULATION ARE 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 
NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA S OF 
12N. JUST TO THE W IS A BROAD UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF S 
MEXICO NEAR 15N101W DRAWING DRIER AIR FROM OVER MEXICO N OF 13N 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GAP WIND FLOW IS BEGINNING TO 
DIMINISH THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THUS THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION IS MOVING S AWAY FROM THE GULF. 

W OF 110W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH N OF THE AREA IS MOVING E OVER CALIFORNIA 
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 32N113W TO 29N114W GENERATING WINDS UP TO 20N 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH S 
INTO THE TROPICS TO 13N130W. THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 15N101W COVERS 
THE AREA E OF 116W AND EXTENDS N TO OVER MEXICO DRAWING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE N OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MENTIONED 
ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE N OF 27N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS N 
OF 17N E OF 115W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
CONTINUES TO AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A PAIR OF SURFACE 
TROUGHS. THE WESTERN ONE IS ALONG 15N126W TO 8N130W AND THE 
SECOND TO THE E ALONG 17N113W TO 10N116W WITH A 1011 MB LOW PRES 
ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 14N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE NEAR THE TROUGH NEAR 130W COVERING 
THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N124W TO 09N129W. 

MODEST LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES 
TO PROPAGATE NEWD BUT WILL DIMINISH ON SAT.   

$$
WALLACE