000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051022
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS ESTIMATED ALONG 87W N OF 04N THROUGH CENTRAL 
HONDURAS...MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE WAVE HAS MOVED INTO A REGION 
OF BROAD LOW TO MID CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE S 
AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM...AND AN ACTIVE EPAC ITCZ. THERE IS NO 
CLEAR SIGNATURE OF THE WAVE...AND THE POSITION IS BASED ON 
CONTINUITY...AND A MODEST MOISTURE SIGNAL MOVING W TO WNW IN THE 
TPW PRODUCTS. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ALONG AND TO THE EAST 
OF THE WAVE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE ITCZ IN STRONG LLVL 
CONVERGENCE S OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND ARE ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT 
FLOW ALOFT.

...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS FROM 08N80W TO 09N86W TO 08N96W TO 07N104W TO 10N114W 
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 98W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 123W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH N OF THE AREA IS MOVING EAST 
INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S INTO 
THE TROPICS ALONG 130W. E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...AN UPPER RIDGE 
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE...WITH HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CENTRAL 
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 15N105W....AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE IN 
PLACE FROM A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N141W...SE TO THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. A 10-15 DEGREE WIDE ZONE OF MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES IS MAINTAINING 
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND CONTINUES TO AID IN THE 
MAINTENANCE OF A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE OF THESE IS ALONG 
ROUGHLY 130W. A 1011 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 13N114W WAS ALONG THE 
OTHER TROUGH. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE NEAR THE TROUGH AT 
130W WHILE THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH HAS FIZZLED AS HAS REACHED 
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A MODEST AREA OF 
20 KT NE TRADES S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND W OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH NEAR 130W. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY 
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 1011 MB LOW NEAR 13N114W. 
ELSEWHERE...SPORADIC 20 KT NW FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE 
CENTRAL BAJA COAST WHERE THE RIDGE IS NOSING IN...WITH RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA FINALLY CONFIRMING THIS. STRONG WESTERLY MID 
LEVEL WIND IS POISED TO ENHANCE MORNING DRAINAGE OVER THE FAR 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA....AMD YIELD SW TO W WINDS NEAR 20 
KT.

E OF 110W...THE BROAD UPPER HIGH NEAR 15N105W IS BRINGING DRY 
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND OVER THE EPAC 
WATERS N OF 10N. THIS FLOW DIVERGES DOWNSTREAM AIDING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ. GAP WIND FLOW IS STARTING HAS DIMINISH THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUT REMAINS NEAR 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS RELATED TO TROUGHING OVER THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS OTHERWISE.

MODEST LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE NEWD AND INTO THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COASTLINES...WITH ANOTHER PULSE TO REACH THE REGION MONDAY. SEAS 
OF 8 FT AND HIGHER CURRENTLY DOMINATE ALL WATERS S OF THE 
EQUATOR AND E OF 120W...AND WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...WITH THIS NEXT LARGE SW PULSE TO BUILD SEAS IN 
EXCESS OF 15 FT S OF 15N BY TUE NIGHT.
  
$$
STRIPLING