000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 04N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  VERY GOOD 
OUTFLOW AT UPPER LEVELS DUE TO ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AT 04N84W 
ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE.  SIMILAR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT 
24 HR BEFORE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS 
ENCOUNTERED NEAR 90W. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS 05N77W TO 08N92W TO 06N106W TO 09N114W TO 09N128W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 
90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM N OF AXIS FROM 94W-107W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 122W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
W SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N128W TO 12N132W 
BRINGS DRY AIR MASS INTO NW SECTION OF E PAC WHILE 100 KT JET 
CORE ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND MAINLAND MEXICO.  SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE LAYER ROUNDS NW 
PERIPHERY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY ANTICYCLONES AT 
14N107W AND 04N84W.  

INCOMING DRY AIR MASS SPELLING DOOM FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 07N131 TO 16N126W.  STRONG SW 
FLOW SHEARS CONVECTIVE HEIGHTS AND FORCES MOISTURE AWAY FROM ANY 
MECHANICAL UPLIFT AVAILABLE AT SURFACE.  

SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 09N116W TO 18N111W STILL 
EMBEDDED IN DEEP MOISTURE AIR MASS...BUT STRONG SW FLOW REMAIN 
TO ITS W REPRESENTS AN ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT TO CURTAIL 
CONVECTION.    

ENHANCED E TRADE WINDS IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE SEEPING 
INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH NEXT 24 HR THEN DIMINISH AS TRADES 
WEAKEN.  SW SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BASIN S OF 07N. 

$$
WALLY BARNES