000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
WEAK WAVE ENTERS E PAC JUST OFF W COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS PRESENTLY SLIGHTLY ADVERSE TO DEVELOPMENT.  
THESE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN LESS THAN 24 HR AS 
WAVE DRIFTS W AT 10 KT.  

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 06N78W TO 07N93W TO 12N107W TO 07N130W TO 07N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF 
AXIS E OF 83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS FROM 90W-98W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N111W IN 
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TROUGH.  NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 116W-122W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 75 NM S OF AXIS 128W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 36N126W HAS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTEND TO 32N125W THEN TO SECOND CYCLONE AT 15N123W.  SECOND 
VORTEX HAS 60 KT JET CORE ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INTO E PAC S OF 12N AVAILABLE FOR ITCZ CONVECTION.  

MID-UPPER LEVEL E-W RIDGE ALONG 10N-12N E OF 120W IS ANCHORED 
BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE AT 11N109W PROVIDES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW 
TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ENHANCING MORE CONVECTION TO ITCZ W OF 
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N114W TO 16N107W.  SECOND ANTICYCLONE 
AT 10N82W WILL SOON BE DOING LIKEWISE TO TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING 
FROM COLOMBIA AT THIS TOME.  MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS WEAK LOW 
PRES IN VICINITY OF TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES UPON MOVING 
W OF 120W WHEN IT LOSES THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW 
SUPPORT.

SURFACE LOW PRES 1011 MB AT 34N127W DRIFT E TIGHTENS PRES 
GRADIENT AGAINST EXISTING BROAD RIDGE N OF 20N INCREASING NW 
WINDS TO FRESH BREEZE ALONG W COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WINDS 
CROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO REACH 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N ENHANCED BY NIGHTTIME DOWNSLOPE 
DRAINAGE LATE THU. 

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07N114W TO 16N105W TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT 
AROUND AXIS RESULTING IN FRESH WINDS.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
ALONG AXIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER OUTFLOW AND DEEP LATER 
MOISTURE MIXING WELL IN DEVELOPING NUMEROUS CONVECTION MAINLY W 
OF TROUGH AXIS.

INCREASING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO 
SEEP INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING NEXT TWO DAYS PRODUCING FRESH 
NORTHEASTERLIES WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TO 8 FT 
CONTINUE AFFECTING S PART OF BASIN S OF 07N DURING NEXT TWO DAYS.

$$
WALLY BARNES