000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 07N78W TO 11N95W TO 05N110W TO 09N135W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS REMAINING STATIONARY 
NEAR 28N127W...E OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N130W 
TO 23N140W. THE FRONT IS RELATED TO A GEOSTATIONARY DEEP LAYER 
CIRCULATION NEAR 38N135W. A WEAK SECONDARY SURGE IS EVIDENT ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 30N132W TO 28N140W...ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER 
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY 15 KT FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE.   
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF IT YET...THE MAIN IMPACT AT THE 
SURFACE WILL BE A SMALL SWATH OF NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE CENTRAL 
BAJA COAST...AND EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...THAT WILL REACH 20 
KT INTO LATE THIS WEEK. 

S OF 20N...A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 135W FROM 05N TO 
11N...ON THE SE SIDE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 
16N140W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS 
ENHANCING AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT FROM 11N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FURTHER 
ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DELIVERED BY A BAND OF 20 KT 
TRADE WINDS SHOWING UP ON A 1430Z QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM 11N TO 
16N W OF 127W. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE 
1019 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N127W. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 07N100W...ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N96W TO 05N101W. 
EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR THIS LOW PRES HAS FIZZLED...GENERALLY 
DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG WESTERLY 
SHEAR. FURTHER EAST...A 16Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY 15 KT GAP 
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE STARTING TONIGHT...DUE TO A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN