000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311614 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN MAY 31 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W FROM 05N-14N MOVING W AT LESS THAN 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL CYCLONIC VORTICES SPINNING WITHIN BROAD ELLIPSE OF ROTATING CLOUDS. ANY OF THESE VORTICES CAN BECOME A LOW PRES AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME MODELS EVEN SUGGEST TWO LOW PRES CENTERS FORMING. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BANDS AND THE LITTLE SHEAR THERE IS DIMINISHES WITHIN 24-36 HRS. AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 10N86W TO 10N98W TO 05N117W TO 09N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 S OF AXIS FROM 98W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 129W. ...DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 32N129W TO 26N136W THEN STATIONARY TO 24N140W SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX WELL N OF AREA AT 38N135W. ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH W OF 140W NEVERTHELESS ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO E PAC ON 70 KT JET CORE FEEDING CONVECTION FOR FRONT AND FOR WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 134W FROM 06N-12N RIDING IN ITCZ. FRONT HAVE LITTLE OR NO WIND OF CONCERN AND ASSOCIATED SWELLS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITHIN 12 HR AS FRONT DISSIPATES. TROUGH HAS BEEN CAUSING FRESH NE WINDS ON ITS W SIDE BUT SHOULD MOVE W OF 140W WITHIN 48 HR. SURFACE WIND CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF TROPICAL WAVE AND NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISTHMUS CAUSED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA APPEAR TO BE CAUSING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN 12-24 HR AS TROUGH MOVES W OF ISTHMUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. $$ WALLY BARNES