000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W FROM 05N TO 12N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 
KT. LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION COVERS A LARGE AREA EXTENDING UP TO FOUR TO FIVE 
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 11N90W TO 09N99W TO 06N115W TO 07N130W 
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N96W TO 06N99W.  

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 120W...
A LARGE WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N138W AND IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SSE FROM THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER TO 26N133W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED N OF 23N W OF 128W. 
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N131W TO 25N137W 
AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS 23N140W. W OF THE 
FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW 
SWELL... HIGHEST OVER THE NW PART. A STATIONARY 1019 MB HIGH IS 
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N126W. A WESTERLY JETSTREAM ALOFT 
IS LOCATED THROUGH 20N140W TO 20N120W. WINDS ARE STRONGEST W OF 
130W AND MEASURE 50 TO 60 KT. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT 
OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 15N AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 

E OF 120W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
WESTERN ARIZONA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THIS FEATURE 
SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED FROM 12N TO 25N E OF 120W 
INTO MEXICO. 

$$
CAB