000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W FROM 03N-14N MOVING W 15 KT HAS 
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY E OF ITS AXIS.  SATELLITE 
IMAGES INDICATE FORMATION OF SEVERAL CYCLONIC SWIRLS IN ITS 
VICINITY...MAINLY AT MID LEVELS.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DIMINISHING WIND SHEAR...MAKE MODEL 
GUIDANCE POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N86W TO 09N95W TO 05N105W TO 08N128W TO 
05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N-14N 
...MORE NUMEROUS WITHIN 120 NM E OF WAVE AXIS...E OF 107W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX WELL N OF AREA HAS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTEND TO 32N137W THEN 25N140W.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM 
32N133W TO 25N140W LACK SIGNIFICANT WINDS BUT INTRODUCES LARGE 
LONG PERIOD SWELLS INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN WHICH LAST THROUGH 
NEXT 36 HRS. 

OTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPORTANT FEATURE IS EXTENSION OF RIDGE ALONG 
08N-11N E OF 120W.  RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
AT 08N98W PROVIDING GOOD UMBRELLA-SHAPED OUTFLOW TO CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS PRODUCED BY SURFACE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W.  WITH OTHER 
CONTRIBUTORS...AS DETAILED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES PARAGRAPH...WAVE
EXPECTED TO GENERATE LOW PRES CENTER WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS.

PRESENTLY STATIONARY 1018 MB HIGH PRES AT 26N128W EXPECTED TO 
EVENTUALLY DRIFT NE WITHIN 24 HRS DIMINISHING THE FRESH NW WINDS 
ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA S OF 28N.  

$$
WALLY BARNES