000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W FROM 02N-12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. BROAD AND 
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON SHORTWAVE IR 
IMAGES. CONVECTION IS SCATTERED IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO WITHIN 
THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ. 

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N91W TO 09N124 TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
78W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W 
AND 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES HAS SETTLED WELL SOUTH TO NEAR 24N127W ALLOWING 
THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL E PAC. 
LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS THE STRONGEST TRADES...ONLY 15-20 KT 
...TO THE W OF A STRETCHED TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N123W TO 04N130W. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AS WEAK RIDGING HOLDS. A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE NW 
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT 
AHEAD OF IT...AS REVEALED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THIS FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION ZONE SHORTLY BUT SHOULD 
WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...ELEVATING SEAS TO 12 FT EARLY 
SAT. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATES NW WINDS NEAR 20 KT JUST 
OFF THE S/CNTRL COAST OF BAJA AND FARTHER S NEAR THE COAST OF 
MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND BROAD TROUGHING 
OVER MEXICO. 

IN THE TROPICS...THERE ARE TWO PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE ITCZ. 
ONE OF THESE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE OTHER 
WEAK SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO ITS W ALONG 103W. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS BROAD TURNING IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH POORLY DEFINED 
CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS THAT THIS TURNING IS OFF 
THE SFC AS  W TO NW FLOW IS UNIFORM IN THE OVERPASS.  
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

$$
CANGIALOSI