000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
06N90W TO 09N105W TO 02N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
ITCZ FROM 85W TO 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 108W TO 
120W.


.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS
WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLIES ARE NORTH OF 20N WITH BROAD FLAT 
ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF 20N. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE WITHIN THE 
WESTERLIES ONE IS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTH TEXAS 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO 20N115W TO 20N120W TO 32N120W. THIS 
AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS EXCEPT 
FOR SOME CONVECTION AT THE EAST END OF THE WAVE NORTH OF 26N E 
OF 103W WHICH HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA NORTH 
OF 20N WEST OF 130W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS WITHIN THIS 
TROUGH AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5N133W AND IS MOVING EAST 
NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS 
MOTION AND REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY 
FRIDAY. AT THIS TINE AN AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOME 
EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE EAST 
SEMICIRCLE. OTHERWISE THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH 
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SURFACE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK TROUGH.

$$
LL