000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140944
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 07N103W TO 04N122W TO 04N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 
102W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 107W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N116W TO CUT OFF CYCLONE AT 
24N131W HAS VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF AXIS UNDER 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  BROAD...HEALTHY AND WELL ANCHORED RIDGE AT 
14N99W PREVENTS ANY FURTHER EASTWARD INCURSION OF CYCLONE.
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND SLIDES NE OVER NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE 
WHILE RIDGE BUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...BUT THEN HOLDS AND 
REBUILDS BACK WESTWARD.  JET CORE OF 50-60 KT ADVECTING PLENTY 
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG ITCZ AXIS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED 
CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 120W.  CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ REMAINS 
WITHOUT ORGANIZATION AT PRESENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS UPPER 
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITHIN NEXT 48-72 HRS.  

...AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1025 MB AT 33N133W CAUSING GALE FORCE N WINDS ALONG 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA N OF 31N E OF 126W WITH STRONG WINDS AND 8-9 
FT SWELLS ENCROACHING INTO E PAC N OF 24N.  FRESH TRADES ALSO 
RETURN TO BASIN W OF 130W FROM 08N-15N...BUT DIMINISH WITHIN 24 
HRS.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS AS CARIBBEAN TRADES WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY.  

$$
WALLY BARNES