000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
06N115W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 08N85W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 04N91W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 
04N TO 09N FROM 111W TO 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 07N140W TO 10N113W TO THE COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR 105W THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT 
WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG MOST OF THE ITCZ. THE FLOW IS 
WESTERLY IN THIS AREA WEST OF 110W AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO 
SOUTHERLY IN THIS AREA EAST OF 110W. EAST OF 110W SOME MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE 
AMERICAN COAST BUT MOST IS DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE 
COAST. ALSO THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS ENHANCED EAST OF 110W AS IT 
IS WEST OF 110W.

A DISSIPATING DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS PASSED WEST OF 
140W BUT A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OF THE AREA WEST 
OF 128W. THIS FLOW IS MOIST IN THE DEEP LAYER HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS 
ARE OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE OVERALL RIDGE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N112W. THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS OUT ABOUT 
360 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE AREA INCLUDING THE RIDGE IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.   

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 120W WITH A 
WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. 
REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE IS ANALYZED AS WEAK TROUGH.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE 
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEST SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
LL