000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
06N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE POINTS 03.5N90W AND 04.5N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 04.5N125.5W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 06N134W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS A BROAD RIDGE IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 25N140W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 110W 
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A CUT OFF LOW IS LOCATED 
NEAR 18N138W. THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE AND THE TROUGH WILL 
MOVE WEST ABOUT 4 DEGREES A DAY OR ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE CUT OFF 
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BOTH 
THE TROUGH AND THE CUT OFF LOW HAVE A LARGER AMPLITUDE. THE 
TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIFT A LITTLE WEST AND BY THE 
WEEKEND STILL BE NEAR 115W. THE CUT OFF OW IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
WILL REMAIN SMALL AND MOVE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AND REACH THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OF THE CUT OFF 
LOW OUT TO ABOUT 500 NM. FEW CLOUDS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW IS OVER 
THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE 
NOTED IN THIS AREA AND PATCHY CLOUDS ARE ALSO OBSERVED. 

A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N134W WITH A 
MODERATE RIDGE NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 105W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST 
TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
ASSOCIATED TRADES WILL CONTRACT NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS 
FROM THE NORTH. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD 
TROUGH.

$$
LL