000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040350 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAY 04 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 8N99W 6N110W 5N120W 6N129W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 128W-131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-8N W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER AND NEARLY STATIONARY WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N120W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 19N120W TO 25N120W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE E TO NEAR 13N112W... THEN ENE TO NEAR 16N105W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE AN UPPER LEVEL SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 17N133W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 12N140W. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-50 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 9N140W...THEN SHARPLY TURNS NE TO 19N129W AND E TO 21N123W BEFORE DIVING SE TO 20N115W AND ENE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION STRETCHING FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SW TO ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO SW TO NEAR 15N107W. THE TROUGH THEN BECOMES RATHER NARROW AS IT CONTINUES S TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITUATED NEAR 9N107W...AND SSE TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 106W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT W OF THE TROUGH TO THE ANTICYCLONE. A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME CONSISTING OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ-RELATED CENTRAL PACIFIC CONVECTION AND IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD INTO THE AREA VIA THE JET STREAM BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N133W AND THE ANTICYCLONE. THE MOSITURE PLUME RIDGES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE CREST TO NEAR 17N124W WHERE THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED AS THE PLUME THINS OUT AND THEN SPILLS SE TO NEAR 13N115W. TO THE NW OF THIS MOSITURE...AND W OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PRETTY STABLE AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. ONLY A 150 NM WIDE BLANKET OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS SEEN TO THE W OF 128W...OR S OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N133W AND ALSO E OF THE HIGH BETWEEN 120W-127W. BROKEN MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEING CHANNELED NWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DRIVEN BY A JET STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE FAR ERN TROUGH ALONG 3N103W TO 10N102W NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND WRN GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MOSTLY SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE PARTS OF GUATEMALA... HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND NRN COSTA RICA...BUT ARE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THEY MOVE E. BROAD/MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH HAS A MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY STRETCHING E TO W ALONG 10N TO AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NW COLOMBIA. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N133W WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW ENVIRONMENT AS IT GRADUALLY NEARS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF THE JET STREAM NEAR 10N132W SE TO 7N129W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH. A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND THE TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 128W-133W. SPURTS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SEWD INTO THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA ARE DUE TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES N OF THE AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW SPUN OFF A LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N133W WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N115W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS KEEPING STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HRS. A LATE SEASON LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-13 FT RANGE WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON PER LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE. $$ AGUIRRE