000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAY 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N83W 9N93W 6N105W 5N113W 6N125W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-110W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-139W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER AND NEARLY STATIONARY WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N120W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 19N120W TO 25N120W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE E TO NEAR 13N112W... THEN ENE TO NEAR 16N105W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE AN UPPER LEVEL SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 17N133W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 12N140W. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-60 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 9N140W...THEN SHARPLY TURNS NE TO 19N129W AND E TO 21N123W BEFORE DIVING SE TO 20N115W AND ENE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH NEAR 18N108W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THERE TO ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AND NE TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEING CHANNELED NWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DRIVEN BY A JET STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 3N103W TO 10N102W NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND WRN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INTERIOR OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BROAD/MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH WITH A MEAN AXIS STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 84W-89W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N133W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW ENVIRONMENT...THEN LIFT NW ON TOWARDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF THE JET STREAM NEAR 10N134W SE TO 7N131W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH. A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND THE TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 128W-133W. BROKEN TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD INTO THE AREA FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ZONE BY THE JET STREAM. THE MOISTURE PLUME...ABOUT 300 NM IN WIDTH...IS EVIDENT TO THE E AND SE OF THE JET STREAM THEN BECOMES SCATTERED AS IT RIDES ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE SPILLING SE TO NEAR 13N115W. SPURTS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SEWD INTO THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA ARE DUE TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES N OF THE AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED 26N133W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 16N115W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS KEEPING STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HRS. A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS WILL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON PER LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE. $$ AGUIRRE