000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030404
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N87W 8N100W 6N115W 3N121W 4N130W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 84W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER AND NEARLY STATIONARY WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE IS 
NEAR 12N119W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 17N111W
TO 19N107W AND NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN THE FAR WRN
GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO
NEAR 8N128W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE AN UPPER LEVEL
...SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 19N133W 
WITH A TROUGH SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 15N140W. A JET STREAM 
BRANCH SEPARATES BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...AND ENTERS THE REGION 
THROUGH 11N140W...BRANCHING NE TO 17N131W TO 22N126W THEN EWD TO 
24N119W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN NEWD TO ACROSS 
NRN MEXICO. 200 MB UPPER AIR WIND DATA SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 
40-60 KT ALONG THE JET STREAM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM JUST S OF THIS JET STREAM NEAR 10N137W SE TO 6N132W. 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH. A SLIGHT 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE AND THE TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 128W-133W. BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVERCAST MID AND HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ZONE BY THE JET STREAM. THE MOISTURE 
PLUME...ABOUT 300 NM IN WIDTH...IS PRETTY MUCH ALONG AND S OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED JET STREAM BRANCH. THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED
E OF 121W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS N CENTRAL 
MEXICO.

ANOTHER PLUME OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS SURGING SEWD INTO THE
FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA...CARRIED EWD IN PULSES OF ENERGY 
IN FAST ZONAL FLOW OBSERVED N OF 29N. THESE CLOUDS ARE RIDING UP 
AND OVER THE RIDGING THAT IS SLIDING E OVER CALIFORNIA EXTENDING 
SW TO NEAR 30N123W.

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW 
ENVIRONMENT.

OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA E OF THE RIDGE...A NEARLY 
STATIONARY SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SW TO ACROSS SE MEXICO TO A NARROW 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N103W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 6N107W 
TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 109W. BROKEN MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE 
BEING CHANNELED NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DRIVEN BY A JET 
STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 5N104W TO 10N100W 
NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND WRN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE ALSO TIED TO 
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER INTERIOR OF HONDURAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MON IN RESPONSE TO 
STRONG ZONAL FLOW N OF 29N. 

BROAD/MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH
WITH A MEAN AXIS STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE WRN CARIBBEAN 
SEA. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED TO STRONG CONVECTION 
OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 84W-89W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED 26N132W WITH
A RIDGE SE TO 14N110W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS KEEPING WINTER TYPE FRONTS AND 
ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS TO THE N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 24 HRS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-11 FT 
RANGE WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 11-13 SECONDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE 
THE FAR NW WATERS LATE SUN THROUGH MON PER LATEST WAVE MODEL 
GUIDANCE. THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT HAS BEEN DELAYED TO ABOUT 
A DAY COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO.

$$
AGUIRRE