000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT MAY 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 8N100W 6N110W 4N120W 3N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 84W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W-116W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER AND NEARLY STATIONARY WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N120W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 17N111W TO 19N107W AND NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 8N128W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE AN UPPER LEVEL ...SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 19N133W WITH A TROUGH SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 15N140W. A JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...AND ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 11N140W...BRANCHING NE TO 17N131W TO 22N126W THEN EWD TO 24N119W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN NEWD TO ACROSS NRN MEXICO. 200 MB UPPER AIR WIND DATA SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-60 KT ALONG THE JET STREAM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF THIS JET STREAM NEAR 10N137W SE TO 6N132W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH. A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND THE TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 128W-133W. BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD INTO THE AREA FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ZONE BY THE JET STREAM. THE MOISTURE PLUME...ABOUT 300 NM IN WIDTH...IS PRETTY MUCH ALONG AND S OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET STREAM BRANCH. THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED E OF 121W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO. ANOTHER PLUME OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS SURGING SEWD INTO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA...CARRIED EWD IN PULSES OF ENERGY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW OBSERVED N OF 29N. THESE CLOUDS ARE RIDING UP AND OVER RIDGING THAT IS SLIDING E OVER CALIFORNIA EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 30N123W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA E OF THE RIDGE...A NEARLY STATIONARY SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SW TO ACROSS SE MEXICO TO A NARROW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N103W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 6N107W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 109W. BROKEN MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEING CHANNELED NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DRIVEN BY A JET STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 5N104W TO 10N100W NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND WRN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE ALSO TIED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST INLAND THE COAST BETWEEN FAR SE MEXICO AND WRN HONDURAS FURTHER AIDED BY DAY TIME HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW N OF 29N. BROAD/MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH WITH A MEAN AXIS STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 84W-89W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED 26N127W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 14N110W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS KEEPING WINTER TYPE FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 24 HRS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 11-13 SECONDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE FAR NW WATERS LATE SUN THROUGH MON PER LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT HAS BEEN DELAYED TO ABOUT A DAY COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. $$ AGUIRRE