000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 9N85W 5N115W 3N128W 4N140W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 2N-9N E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 85W-95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS FROM 112W 
TO 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 19N133W WITH TROUGH SW TO 
12N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 12N-20N W OF THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A 45-55 KT WIND MAX IS E OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 13N134W TO 25N121W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE WIND MAX. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 
MOSTLY WLY WINDS IS N OF 29N W OF 120W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE BOOT HILL OF NEW MEXICO ACROSS NW MEXICO 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 23N116W. 
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 280 NM SE OF 
TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM S TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO 
TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N119W. E OF THE RIDGE A 
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE EQUATOR AT 110W. SW WINDS E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FORM ITCZ 
CONVECTION TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA WITH RIDGE NW ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN TO 
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM 2N-9N E OF 90W.

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 26N126W WITH RIDGE 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 113W. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW 
PRES OVER SW TEXAS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

$$
DGS