000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG 05N77W TO 
04N90W TO 09N105W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 131W.   

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 
40N130W. THIS HIGH IS MOVING FURTHER N AND IS LESSENING THE 
SURFACE GRADIENT AND SURFACE WINDS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO NEAR THE ITCZ WITH GFS MODEL 
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INDICATED S OF 10N. PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS 
OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF 8 FT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. PANAMA GAP WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE 
ALSO FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TEHUANTEPEC GALE IS 
FORECAST IN 36 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES E OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.     

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N132W. ZONAL FLOW IS ELSEWHERE W OF 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 100W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO 
MOVE N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LEAVE A ZONAL PATTERN N OF 
20N. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD S OF 20N W OF 100W 
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD E OF 100W OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.   

$$
FORMOSA