000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 06N78W TO 05N90W TO 07N110W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS E OF 89W AND 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 127W

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...
AN AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. SFC OBS AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEAL 
WINDS TO 30 KT JUST N OF 30N AND TO GALE FORCE FARTHER N OFF THE 
CENTRAL CA COAST. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE N PORTION OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA...LIKELY BY THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT...THESE 
ENHANCED NW WINDS MAY SPREAD S OF 30N AND THEREFORE STAYED IN 
LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FCST AT 20-30 KT. WIND GENERATE 
WAVES COMBINED WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM GALE 
CONDITIONS OVER THE N PACIFIC...WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 10-18 FT N 
OF 24N E OF 130W TONIGHT AND WED. SW TO W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS 
AFTERNOON BUT SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT DUE TO 
THE LIMITED FETCH. ONLY AREA OF NOTABLE MOISTURE IS OVER THE SRN 
PORTION OF BAJA...ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET...BUT IT 
APPEARS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

S OF 20N...
NE TO E TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA N OF THE ITCZ W ABOUT 120W. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED IN THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE 
MIXED SIGNALS OF THE 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 41N136W BUILDING 
SOUTHEAST...WHICH TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT...AND 
WEAKENING...WHICH WOULD LOOSENS THE GRADIENT. LONG PERIOD NW AND 
SW SWELL TRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTION-WISE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ HAS 
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY BUT STILL REMAINS 
ENHANCED S OF PANAMA FUELED IN PART BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT 
PATTERN.

$$
CANGIALOSI