000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON APR 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 7N90W 6N102W 6N115W 6N125W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89-93W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-126W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA JUST E OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. CONFLUENT FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FROM 16N-26N AND E OF 120W. BEHIND THE TROUGH... A DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVING E EXTENDS ALONG 115W N OF 20N. TO THE W OF THE RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY E ALONG 32N128W TO 28N125W TO 24N126W. TO THE S OF THE TROUGH AND RIDGE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM 15N121W TO 10N122W TO 4N123W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 125W. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 9.5N136W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC IS STREAMING ENE UP ACROSS THE AREA OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING VIA A JET STREAM BRANCH THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 22N140W AND STRETCHES THROUGH 22N130W NE TO 26N122W TO ACROSS THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALONG 115W. THE MOISTURE PLUME IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADS TO ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW U.S. OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS PRESENT WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS ALONG 9N E OF 112W AND AN ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE OVER PANAMA. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE THROUGH 28N1133 T22N125W TO NEAR 18N112W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 112W. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 99W FROM 3N-9N. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT...NW-N WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W-127W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES N W OF OF THE AREA DIVES SE AND LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WRN U.S. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 48 HRS AND BEYOND WITH THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT FUNNELING SEAS CONSISTING OF POSSIBLE MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF UP TO 18 FT SWD INTO THE NE PART OF THE AREA AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE WAVEWATCH MODEL. NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT FROM 7N-22N W OF 127W AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 118W-121W ENHANCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE N WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN MIXED SW AND NE SWELL...WITH THE SW SWELL CONTAINING A PERIOD OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND N TO A LINE FROM 30N131W TO 29N140W AND W OF 124W IN 48 HRS...WITH SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OVER THE AREA FROM 16N-28N E OF 115W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 12 HRS...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN TO 8 FT IN PREDOMINATELY A N SWELL. BY 36 HRS...THESE CONDITIONS WILL DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND LESS THAN 8 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S AND SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 19N W OF 113W. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING STEERED BY THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION DESCRIBED ABOVE. $$ AGUIRRE