000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131520 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON APR 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 07N78W TO 05N110W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A COUPLE OF SFC OBS REVEAL 20-25 KT N-NW WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO EXTENDING N INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 28N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH NEAR 43N145W AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND THE SW CONUS IS SUPPORTING THESE WINDS. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER TROUGH ALONG 132W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN A DIFFLUENT AREA TO ITS E N OF 25N BETWEEN 122W-127W. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH EWD AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST LATE TOMORROW AND WED. THE MERGED TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS AND BAJA LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED... RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NW WINDS TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA. WIND GENERATED WAVES COMBINED WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...EMERGING FROM GALE CONDITIONS WELL N OF THE ZONE...WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 10-18 FT N OF 23N E OF 132W BY WED. S OF 20N... NE TO E TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 117W. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FLOW DUE TO THE MIXED SIGNALS OF THE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST...WHICH TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT...AND WEAKENING ...WHICH WOULD LOOSEN THE GRADIENT. LONG PERIOD NW AND SW SWELL TRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONVECTION-WISE...THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY ACTIVE BETWEEN 113W-138W DUE TO PRONOUNCED WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 125W. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 98W BUT IS PRODUCING LITTLE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. $$ CANGIALOSI