000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130316 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON APR 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 6N90W 6N102W 2N110W 2N121W 4N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 131W-138W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW U.S. EXTENDS A TROUGH SW IN THE AREA THROUGH NW MEXICO...SW TO SRN BAJA AND TO 19N115W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO SUBSIDENCE WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FROM 17N-28N AND E OF 125W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL E AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH MON. TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTEND ALONG 128W N OF 18N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC IS BEING CHANNELED NE UP ACROSS THE RIDGE VIA A JET STREAM BRANCH THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 23N140W AND EXTENDS NE TO 29N136W TO 32N128W. THE JET IS ENERGIZING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST ABOUT READY TO ENTER THE AREA ALONG 140W N OF 22N. THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDINESS WHICH IS SPILLING SE INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 125W. TO THE E AND SE OF THE TROUGH...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE MOVING E NEAR 10N98W AND RIDGE ALONG 10N W TO 115W IS KEEPING STATUS QUO WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 129W S OF 15N. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH...BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED WITH A SMALL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 4N140W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH CENTER IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 26N124W TO 22N118W TO 18N112W TO NEAR 14N107W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 2N139W NE TO 7N135W TO 10N129W. THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ALONG 97W/98W MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT. ONLY AN ISOLATED WEAKENING TSTM CELL IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 4N97W. OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT...NW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 27N E OF 123W TO ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES N W OF OF THE AREA DIVES SE AND LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WRN U.S. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 48 HRS AND BEYOND WITH THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT FUNNELING SEAS CONSISTING OF POSSIBLE MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 15 OR 16 FT SWD INTO THE NE PART OF THE AREA AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE WAVEWATCH MODEL. NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT FROM 7N-21N W OF 121W AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 118W-121W ENHANCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE N WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN MIXED SW AND NE SWELL...WITH THE SW SWELL CONTAINING A PERIOD OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND N TO A LINE FROM 30N131W TO 29N140W AND W OF 124W IN 48 HRS...WITH SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OVER THE AREA FROM 16N-28N E OF 115W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 12 HRS...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN TO 8 FT IN PREDOMINATELY A N SWELL. BY 36 HRS...THESE CONDITIONS WILL DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND LESS THAN 8 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S AND SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 19N W OF 113W. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING STEERED BY THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION DESCRIBED ABOVE. $$ AGUIRRE