000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122142 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN APR 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 7N90W 5N100 2N108W 2N115W 3N123W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 3N-6N W OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-85W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW U.S. EXTENDS A TROUGH SW IN THE AREA THROUGH NW MEXICO...SW TO SRN BAJA AND TO 19N115W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO SUBSIDENCE WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FROM 17N-28N AND E OF 125W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL E AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH MON. TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTEND ALONG 129W/130W N OF 18N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC IS BEING CHANNELED NE UP ACROSS THE RIDGE VIA A JET STREAM BRANCH THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 23N140W AND EXTENDS NE TO 29N136W TO 32N128W. THE JET IS ENERGIZING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST ABOUT READY TO ENTER THE AREA ALONG 140W N OF 22N. THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDINESS WHICH IS SPILLING SE INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 125W. TO THE E AND SE OF THE TROUGH...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE MOVING E NEAR 10N98W AND RIDGE ALONG 10N W TO 115W IS KEEPING STATUS QUO WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 129W S OF 15N. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH...BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED WITH A SMALL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 4N141W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH CENTER IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N131W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 26N125W TO 20N117W TO NEAR 16N108W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 105W. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 3N133W NE TO 8N130W TO 13N127W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION...EARLIER ENHANCED BY THE NEARBY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ALONG 140W S OF 8N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AS STATED ABOVE. OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT...NW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 27N E OF 123W TO ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES N W OF OF THE AREA DIVES SE AND LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WRN U.S. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUITE SIGNIFICANT IN 48 HRS AND BEYOND WITH THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT FUNNELING SEAS CONSISTING OF POSSIBLE MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 10-15 FT SWD INTO THE NE PART OF THE AREA AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE WAVEWATCH MODEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS W OF 121W AND ALSO FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 118W-121W WITH NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE 8-11 ATTRIBUTED TO A MIXED SW AND NE SWELL...WITH THE SW SWELL HAVING A PERIOD OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND N TO 29N AND CONTRACT SLIGHTLY TO THE W BY 48W HRS...WITH SEAS IN 8-11 FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND NE SWELL. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OVER THE AREA FROM 16N-28N E OF 115W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 18 HRS...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN TO 8 OR 9 FT IN PREDOMINATELY A SW SWELL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BLANKET OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S AND SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 19N W OF 113W...AND ARE BEING STEERED BY THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION DESCRIBED ABOVE. $$ AGUIRRE