000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110317 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT APR 11 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N79W 6N90W 6N100W 3N110W 1N120W 3N130W 1N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 3N130W. ...DISCUSSION... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING EWD ACROSS THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 13N E OF 127W WITH A MEAN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH 32N119W TO 25N120W TO 18N122W TO 8N126W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WELL N OF THE AREA. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 150 NM IN DIAMETER MOVING ENE ABOUT 30 KT THROUGH THE TROUGH IS JUST MOVING OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS FROM 19N-29N AND E OF 135W. THE SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 29N119W 1011 MB MOVING ESE 20 KT. A TROUGH EARLIER CONNECTED TO THE LOW NOW EXTENDS THROUGH 30N115W TO 26N116W AND SW TO 23N125W AS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THIS TROUGH TO RAPIDLY MOVE E AND WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN 24 HRS AND FURTHER E INTO THE SW U.S. IN 48 HRS. STRONG NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE WITHIN 420 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AS DISPLAYED IN A 1340 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT TO 130W WINDS ARE NW 20-25 KT. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DEPICTS MAXIMUM COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 12 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN 48 HRS. THE ABOVE TROUGH IS IN BETWEEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGES WITH A POTENT JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 30N140W AND DIVING SEWD TO 18N131W...THEN ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND NE TO 22N115W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THIS JET CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT AMPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CLOUDS NE TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING UP ACROSS A RIDGE W OF THE AREA ALONG 144W SE INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 13N WITH THE JET TAPPING THIS MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ACCELERATING IT INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA. MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE JET CORE ARE 60-90 KT. TO THE E AND SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITH AN ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE MOVING WSW NEAR 3N106W IS MAINTAINING RATHER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...THE ERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE S/CENTRAL PACIFIC EXTENDS E INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 129W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N138W TO 22N122W TO 19N109W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THREE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALONG 93W FROM 3N-9N...THE SECOND FROM 6N120W TO 11N117W TO 15N115W...AND THE THIRD ALONG 130W FROM 2N-7N. ALL TROUGHS ARE MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT. THE FIRST TROUGH EARLIER WAS ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...BUT WITHIN THE PAST FEW HRS THIS CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 90W-94W. THE SECOND TROUGH HAS ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF ITS AXIS. THE THIRD TROUGH IS THE BETTER ONE DEFINED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF ITS AXIS NEAR 3N130W MARKING A SMALL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. TIGHT CURVED LINES OF LOW CLOUDS SWIRLING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE CONVECTION. THIS TROUGH IS CAUGHT IN A COL REGION BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...BUT YET NEAR THE SRN TIP OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH PERHAPS IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TROUGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE N IS RESULTING IN NE TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 9N TO 19N W OF 127W WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN NW SWELL. THESE WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO THE E OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OVER AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 103W-108W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS AREA WILL EXPAND E TO THE MEXICAN COAST...AND W TO 115W FROM 16N-23N IN 24 HRS WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT...AND FROM 16N-23N E OF 108W TO THE MEXICAN COAST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN 48 HRS. SMALL PATCHES OF CELLULAR SHAPE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SSW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED S TO 13N AND W OF LINE FROM 23N115W TO 13N127W. THEY ARE BEING STEERED BY THE NE FLOW AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. GAP WINDS... STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE ERN PACIFIC BY WAY OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS NE-E 20 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THEY PULSATE OFF AND ON. SW WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HRS.. AN AREA OF NW WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 15N-21N E OF 108W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WILL ADJUST TO 16N-23N E OF 108W IN 24 HRS...AND CONTINUE INTO 48 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE