000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 02N95W TO 03N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 91W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEAR 28N136W WITH 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE W. AN UPPER LEVEL JET 
STREAM MAXIMUM EXTENDS SW FROM 26N13W TO 21N126W WITH WINDS TO 
95 KT AT THE 200 MB LEVEL. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 115 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS 
ANOTHER MAXIMUM CURRENTLY NEAR 14N138W MIGRATES NE TO NEAR 
21N134W WHILE ALSO INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ALSO SHOWS A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE SHORTWAVE W OF 
127W...AND OVER A BROAD AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 
FIRST JET MAX AND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND MAX. THE 
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED DRYER AIR ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY NEAR 
12N107W IN THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH PRESSURE. 

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA 
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...TRANSLATING TO GENERALLY OVERCAST 
CONDITIONS N OF 14N. ALSO...A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF 
DISCUSSION NEAR 37N151W WILL SLIDE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WHILE EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE AREA FROM 30N140W TO 
18N109W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ HAS 
THE WINDS UP TO 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 135W...AND ALSO TO 20 
KT W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AS THE RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE LOW 
PRES TROUGH JUST E OF THE AREA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NOT 
MUCH CHANGE WITH THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE NEXT DAY 
OR TWO...SO EXPECT CURRENT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. A SHIP 
REPORTED SEAS TO 14 FT OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NORTHERLY SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT.

KELLS/CHRISTENSEN
$$