000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 01N108W TO 04N133W TO 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 80W TO 
82W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 95W TO 97W...AND N 
OF AXIS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 132W AND 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 28N 
THROUGH 24N129W. A 95-115 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM MAXIMUM IS ON 
TOP OF THE TROUGH...AND WINDS AT 200 MB ARE EXPECTED INCREASE TO 
120-130 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 925 MB...A LOW LEVEL WIND 
MAXIMUM CURRENTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS EXPECTED TO 
MIGRATE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N122W...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 
30-35 KT AT 925 MB BY TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW LEVEL 
STABILITY OVER THE COLD CALIFORNIA CURRENT WILL INHIBIT STRONG 
MIXING FROM THE 925 MB LEVEL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 
SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT EXCEED 20 KT BY THU. HOWEVER...A WEAK 
COLD SURGE ON FRI WILL DESTABILIZE THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 120W 
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO SURFACE. 
ELSEWHERE...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 07N108W WILL PERSIST 
OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE INTENSITY REMAINS 
FAIRLY CONSTANT. 
 
A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 36N148W...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 
32N141W TO 12N108W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A 
WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 33N119W IS SUPPORTING WINDS TO 20 KT. 
ALSO...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE W OF 130W. GOES 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR FROM 25N TO 30N...AND 
INCREASING MOISTURE S OF 25N COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER JET.  
BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MOIST AIR FROM 12N TO 25N.

$$
KELLS/CANGIALOSI