000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 
07N80W TO 01N108W TO 03N127W...THEN CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
139W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS FROM 85W TO 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS SW FROM 32N119W TO 
25N134W...AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET IS JUST S OF THE TROUGH...DENOTED BY A FEW 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM 26N113W TO 16N140W...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE E INTO WED. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
REVEALS DRY UPPER AIR ELSEWHERE S OF THE JET E OF 
128W...INDICATING SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS FORMED AT 
10N107W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO 10N130W...AND NE THROUGH 
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N192W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS 
DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 05N88W...AND THE MOST RECENT 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES THAT INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. 
HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A 1040 MB HIGH 
IS CURRENTLY NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N146W...AND HAS A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE AREA TO 25N130W TO 16N112W. THE 
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY EXTENDS FURTHER SE INTO THE REGION. 

$$
KELLS/CANGIALOSI