000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301508
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N82W TO 03N100W TO 04N130W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 
133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N144W 
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING N TO NE 20-25 KT 
TRADES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS W OF 
120W. ASSOCIATED WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL IS ELEVATING SEAS UP TO 
12 FT...HIGHEST JUST W OF THE N BAJA COAST. OVERALL...LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH 
REMAINS IN PLACE.

IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO 25N140W. A SW JET AND AN OVERALL 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN E OF THE AXIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE SWATH OF 
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 
120W-135W. FARTHER E...A SPRAWLING HIGH CENTERED NEAR 9N109W 
DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS PROVIDING ABUNDANT STABILITY OVER THE 
REGION...SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ. NWP MODELS SHOW THE PATTERN FLATTENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT NO BIG CHANGES APPEAR IN STORE.

$$
CANGIALOSI/KELLS