000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N78W TO 03N100W TO 06N120W TO 05N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 
127W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 86W-90W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N143W CUT OFF FROM MAIN 
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH NOW REMAINS N OF 32N.  MODEL GUIDANCE 
SOLUTION BRINGS VORTEX INTO E PAC TO 26N135W SUN WITH JETSTREAM 
INCREASING FROM ACTUAL 60 KT TO OVER 100 KT...LIKELY INCREASING 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND ADVECTING MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE.  WITH 
ITCZ PROVIDING SOME MECHANICAL UPLIFT...DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE S OF 12N W OF 120W.  DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE CENTERED AT 01N100W MAINTAINS DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS OVER 
REST OF E PAC EXCEPT MINOR CONVECTION DETECTED S OF ITCZ FROM 
86W-90W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
WEAKENING 1037 MB HIGH PRES AT 37N143W FORCED E PUSHING GALE 
FORCE WINDS OFF CALIFORNIA COAST SPREADING STRONG N-NW WINDS S 
OF 32N INTO FORECAST WATERS AND ATTENDANT LARGE SWELLS AS FAR S 
AS 23N BY SUN.  GULF OF CALIFORNIA GET ITS SHARE OF SHORT-LIVED 
STRONG NW WINDS TONIGHT...SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT BY SAT NIGHT. 

SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N138W 24N129W TO 18N112W.  BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 115W.

$$
WALLY BARNES