000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262203 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU MAR 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 05N80W TO 00N102W TO 00N112W TO 04N128W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM N AND 45 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. ...DISCUSSION... ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WWD TO 28N134W THEN CONTINUES TO A LARGE AND MATURING CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED NEAR 22.5N145W. UPPER CONVERGENCE OCCURRING WITHIN 4-6 DEG OF AXIS E OF 134W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS VORTEX CUTOFF FROM MEAN FLOW AND MEANDERING NEXT 24-36 HRS BEFORE BEING PICKED UP BY S/W MOVING INTO W COAST OF U.S. AND LIFTING OUT TO THE ENE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE TROPICAL EPAC TO FLATTEN... REORGANIZE...AND BECOME REENTERED ALONG 120-125W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RELATIVELY BROAD SW TO S JET OF 55-80 KT CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE VORTEX AND RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND FEEDING PLENTY OF ENERGY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO AIDING IN VENTILATING A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 124W AND 146W...WHERE THE FRESH NELY TRADES ARE CONVERGING N OF THE ITCZ. A JET CORE OF 70-110 KT CAN BE FOUND ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX AND THE FAR W GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW. ELSEWHERE FURTHER E...STABLE AND STAGNANT MID LEVELS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL EPAC BETWEEN 94W AND 120W...UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE. AT THE SURFACE... A 1038 MB HIGH PERSISTS NEAR 37N144W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 13N112 AND IS MAINTAINING A STRONG CAP OVER LOW LEVEL BROKEN STRATIFIED CLOUDS N OF 15N W OF 120W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFTS E DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE TRADE WINDS W OF 130W...BUT SQUEEZE THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INCREASE WINDS ON BOTH COASTS WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE W AND SW CARIBBEAN REMAIN SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT AND AREA LIMITING SEEPAGE OF GAP WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EPAC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS. $$ STRIPLING